Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
